Roofing study

This is not an independent study, but an internal study based on the facts gathered during the replacement of one roof and then extrapolating the cost to reflect what we are to expect in the future.

A reserve study for the Palmotillo roofs

History

A layer of shingles was added to the 10 Palmotillo roofs in 2016. It has been established that all 10 roofs at the time were 38 years old and in very poor condition.

March 2026.

The remaining useful life of the 10 roofs varies depending on the quality of the 2016 installation of the second layer of shingles and the amount of damage each roof sustained during the first 38 years of ware and tare.

In February of 2026 our board approved the replacement of the West Windy court roof due to evidence that a poor installation of shingles was had on that roof more than the other 9 roofs. Both layers of shingles and some of the decking were replaced. The estimated cost, $42,500.00

The actual cost due to unforeseen damages to the decking was $43,350.00

The chart below shows an approximate cost to replace each roof based on our actual cost of the West Windy roof.

The Maricopa County parcel data was used to calculate a percent of total for each roof in the Palmotillo COA. The cost to replace each roof as a percent of total (no matter the actual square footage) is shown in the chart below.

Percent of total		Roofs	Relative Roof size	Original Plan	Current Plan
13.09%	1	W Ocotillo	15166.2	$67,352.63	$68,698.73
12.61%	2	S Roto	14606.2	$64,882.86	$66,179.60
11.64%	3	N Roto	13486.2	$59,891.87	$61,088.86
10.92%	4	N Pistol	12646.2	$56,187.22	$57,310.17
10.44%	5	E Ocotillo	12086.2	$53,717.45	$54,791.04
8.74%	6	S Pistol	10126.2	$44,970.36	$45,869.13
8.74%	7	Palmeras 99th	10126.2	$44,970.36	$45,869.13
8.26%	8	W Windy	9566.2	$42,500.59	$43,350.00
7.78%	9	E Windy	9006.2	$40,030.82	$40,830.87
7.78%	10	Palmeras 102nd	9006.2	$40,030.82	$40,830.87
100.00%		Roof Total	115822	$514,535.00	$524,818.40

				Objective	$481,468.4
				Total minus W Windy

Our goal is to be able to have the remaining 9 roofs replaced within 9 years.

Going forward

Our new 2026 monthly reserve allocation for roofing is $4,172, up from $3,174.25 in 2025. Our cost to fix West Windy roof was $43,350 so our cost to replace the other nine roofs is calculated to be $481,468.40. If all unknown factors (like the cost of inflation, windstorm damage or other acts of God) are eliminated from the calculation, we will be able to pay for the other nine roofs in about 9 years or less with “hopefully” money to spare. This chart shows a year by year look at what we're planning.

		2026		2025		2026
	$43,350.00				Assessment	Annual
	$125,665.73	Monthly Budget		Monthly Budget	Monthly	Reserve Budget
Current year	$82,315.73	$4,172.00	12	$3,174.25	$0.00	$50,064.00
1	$132,379.73
2	$182,443.73
3	$232,507.73
4	$282,571.73
5	$332,635.73
6	$382,699.73
7	$432,763.73			Eight year Objective
8	$482,827.73			$481,468.40
9	$532,891.73